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Feasibility of start-up of new ammonia facilities in Russia until 2020

Russian companies are aiming to considerably expand their ammonia capacities by 2020. Implementation of all announced projects translates into 6—6.7 million t increase in ammonia capacity, excluding upgrading of existing facilities! Thus, it is important for market experts to have clear understanding of feasibility of new start-ups and their influence on the market. This report reflects views of Chem-Courier specialists on possible market development scenarios.
The report includes advantages and disadvantages of new units, risks and opportunities related to their operation, shifts in commodity flows as well as competitive strengths and weaknesses of suppliers.

Current situation in Russia
1. 2010-2013 production analysis with breakdown by company.
1.1 Capacity/ resource intensity/level of equipment upgrading.
1.2 Dynamics of output.

1.3 Share of commercial ammonia in total output.
1.4 Internal consumption and sales structure
1.5 Commercial ammonia consumption structure by suppliers and consumers in 2013.
1.6 Domestic price dynamics by producer in 2013.
1.7 Logistics costs in the domestic market in 2013.
1.8 Feedstock costs in ammonia price by producer in 2010-2013.
Current situation in the global market.
2. 2010 – 2013 global commodity flow and demand.
2.1 General global market assessment (supply/ demand).
2.2 International urea trade structure (export/ import by regions).
2.3 Major urea supplying and consuming countries.
2.4 Competing regions in the global ammonia market.
3. Russia’s share in the global ammonia trade in 2010-2013.
3.1 Russia’s export dynamics by producers and outlets.
3.2 Export price dynamics by producers and outlets.
3.3 Export sales structure.
3.4 Export logistics costs in 2013.

Development outlook
4. Analysis of new projects and their efficiency.
4.1 New startup projects in Russia by 2020.
4.2 Production costs and logistics of new units in Russia.
4.3 Shifts in Russia's commodity flows between domestic and foreign markets.
4.4 Redistribution of players’ shares in the Russian market.

4.5 Potential domestic sales from new ammonia operations.
4.6 Export potential of new ammonia operations and changes in export commodity flows.

4.7 Potential foreign outlets for the Russian product.
5. Findings concerning efficiency and feasibility of construction of new ammonia units in Russia.